|
June 22, 2000
General William E. Odom, Senior
Fellow, Director of National Security Studies, Hudson
Institute, Washington, D.C.
In his excellent analysis, General
William Odom
offered a comprehensive picture of the present state
of affairs in Russia. He started out with the
rhetoric question: can President Putin put things in
order in Russia? His answer was "no, most probably
not." He explained his rather pessimistic view by
stating that the size and complexity of the challenge
is much greater than is generally recognized even by
close students of Russia. First, there is not even an
agreement on what properly constitutes the country and
its basis for legitimacy. Second, although Russia has
a federal constitution, 46 states out of 89 have
negotiated treaties with Moscow and most of them are
not compatible with the constitution. Third, most
business firms and individuals avoid the courts and
resort to private security firms to settle disputes,
to collect debts, etc. Fourth, the parliament passes
laws, the the President has the power to issue decrees
contradicting them. Fifth, text laws are
contradictory and counter productive. Sixth, the
number of bureaucrats on state payroll remains high.
The General spoke about the ramping corruption, the
role of the oligarchies, the difficulties western
investors are having on the Russian market. He
described also the grave problems of the Russian
military. He concluded his lecture by predicting that
a year from now we will be calling Putin, President
Yeltsin the second. "Put simply," said the General,
"I believe Russian is in what I call the weak state
trapped and cannot get out any time soon, not even in
several decades."
|
